RANZ Panel: Unveiling the economic crystal ball

During this episode of our podcast, we broadcast a recording of a panel from the recent Research Association New Zealand's AGM. The panel, moderated by RANZ Chair  Ian Mills, features experts from various sectors, including Rob Clark from Seek, Carin Hercock from Ipsos, Jason Shoebridge from NZIER, and Liza Van der Merwe from Deloitte Access Economics. The panelists take a deep dive into the current state of the New Zealand economy and its implications for the market research industry.

Rob highlighted the challenges in the labor market, Carin shared findings from the Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor, Jason Shoebridge provided an economic overview from NZIER, and Liza Van der Merwe discussed policy impacts and resilience.

Key themes include:

• Economic Resilience: Despite structural changes and challenges, New Zealand's economy has shown resilience with relatively mild recessions since 1991.
• Current Economic Climate: The panelists discuss the unique nature of the current economic downturn, driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions, policy-induced shocks, and infrastructure challenges.
• Consumer Confidence: The discussion touches on the disparity between business and consumer confidence, with consumer confidence remaining low despite some economic indicators showing improvement.
• Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation remains a significant issue, compounded by high mortgage rates impacting household spending. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy and its lag effect on consumers are also examined.
• Comparative Analysis: The panel compares New Zealand's economic situation with other countries, noting differences in policy responses and economic structures, particularly with Australia.

The panel also addresses the role of market researchers in translating complex economic data into actionable insights and the importance of effective communication with the media and public. They emphasize the need for market researchers to tell the human story behind the numbers, making data relatable and understandable for broader audiences.

The discussion concludes with insights into future economic trends and the potential for recovery. The panelists suggest that while some economic indicators show signs of stabilization, challenges remain, particularly in improving productivity and addressing social inequalities.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the New Zealand economy's current state and offers valuable perspectives for market researchers and industry professionals navigating these uncertain times.